- Aug 14,2018
The price increase of the product is the direct "firewire" of the "Printed Circuit Board" sector, and the leading companies in the printed circuit board industry will usher in greater development opportunities.
Capital pushes the plate against the trend
On July 18th, the printed circuit board concept stocks began to rise and fall. Among the 22 concept stocks, many stocks such as Ultrasonic Electronics, Jinan Guoji, Huazheng Xincai, Tianjin Pulin and Bomin Electronics were trading daily. In fact, the market for printed circuit board has gradually started as early as late June, and the overall increase of the sector has now exceeded 18%, far exceeding the market.
CITIC Securities analysts believe that product price increases are the direct catalytic factors of the sector, and the deep-seated reasons are due to the increase in downstream high-end demand and the integration opportunities brought by environmental protection, which make the leading companies “strong and strong” and many PCB manufacturers open. "Price increase" mode.
Since July, major manufacturers such as Omway Electronics and Jianye Group have issued price increase notices, and the price of the entire PCB industry has risen by 10%. Even if prices continue to rise, the factory orders are still too late to arrive, and the delivery time is also prolonged.
From the end of 2017, from the environmental protection limit of Kunshan, Jiangsu, to Zhuhai, Shanghai, and to Shenzhen, strict inspections have led to limited production, which has prompted the entire PCB industry to rise in price, and the overall price increase is expected by the end of the year. The magnitude may exceed 30%.
In addition, since 2017, listed companies such as Chongda Technology, Xingsen Technology, Bomin Electronics and Zhongjing Electronics have implemented plans for mergers and acquisitions and expansion, and their market share has gradually increased. At present, the market share of the top three domestic manufacturers is less than 40%, and the industry concentration is far lower than that of other countries and regions in the world. In the future, the share of leading companies will have a large room for improvement, which will also increase the leading enterprises. The bottom of the price.
5G commercial pushes PCB explosion
As the basic material of electronic products, surface mount PCB is the mother of electronic products, and it has a wide demand market. Its application fields include communication, computer, consumer electronics, automotive electronics, etc. Among them, communication and computer are the largest application sections of PCB, accounting for the majority. Over 25%.
The current 5G era is gradually approaching, and will enter commercial use in 2019 and will be officially commercialized in 2020. It is reported that 5G application scenarios require higher connection speed, delay, and connection density. 5G radio will introduce Massive MIMO (large-scale antenna array) technology, which requires a wider spectrum and wider bandwidth of millimeter wave band. Communication.
Compared with the number of base stations of the million-level base station in the 4G era, the development of millimeter wave will push the scale of base stations in the 5G era to exceed tens of millions. It can be foreseen that with the gradual arrival of the 5G full-commercial era, the mass construction and upgrading of communication base stations will create a huge demand for high-frequency and high-speed boards such as PCBs, and PCB will meet the needs of a new round of upgrade and replacement.
Considering the number of base stations and the value of a single base station, it is estimated that the market space brought by the 5G base station to the PCB is 4-5 times that of 4G.
At the same time, 5G networks will carry more bandwidth traffic, and investment in routers, switches, IDCs, etc. will increase, and the demand for high-speed PCB/CCL will also increase significantly. In addition to the increase in demand, high-performance equipment will use high-frequency (antenna) high-speed (IDC / base station) board materials with higher added value, and will also bring double value added and consumption of PCB / CCL industry chain.
According to the data, thanks to the large increase in demand, the global printed circuit board industry is accelerating growth, and the domestic industry is growing faster. According to Prismark, the global PCB production value in 2017 was 58.843 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.6%; of which, China's PCB output value was 29.732 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.9%.
Prismark predicts that from the structural upgrades and incremental demand in the communications, computer, consumer electronics and automotive electronics sectors, the growth rate of global smartphone PCB and automotive PCB production will reach 5%-8% in 2016-2021. In other areas of PCB production growth rate, PCB uplink period will last for about 7 years, by 2021, China's PCB industry output value will exceed 50 billion US dollars.
Focus on investment opportunities of leading companies
As the global electronics manufacturing center migrates to the mainland, domestic PCB companies are ushered in a period of rapid development, and leading domestic companies are expected to continue to move toward tens of billions.
With high demand in the future of 5G and automotive electronics, high-end PCB leaders can share the dividends of downstream emerging areas. In the 5G era, domestic companies with high-end product production capacity are expected to gradually break through the monopoly of foreign capital, dilute the original cycle attributes, and ushered in both performance and valuation.